{"id":987504549,"date":"2023-12-04T14:04:54","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T19:04:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/?p=987504549"},"modified":"2023-12-04T14:34:42","modified_gmt":"2023-12-04T19:34:42","slug":"they-have-turned-the-pm-markets-into-crypto-speculative-markets-manipulation-out-in-the-open-for-everyone-to-see","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/index.php\/2023\/12\/04\/they-have-turned-the-pm-markets-into-crypto-speculative-markets-manipulation-out-in-the-open-for-everyone-to-see\/","title":{"rendered":"They Have Turned The PM Markets into Crypto Speculative Markets, Manipulation Out In The Open For Everyone To See."},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” _builder_version=”4.16″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” _builder_version=”4.16″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_blurb title=”Monday Afternoon” use_icon=”on” font_icon=”||fa||400″ icon_color=”#7CDA24″ icon_placement=”left” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_blurb][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-from-2023-12-04-13-45-40.png” title_text=”Screenshot from 2023-12-04 13-45-40″ align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”20px||20px||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-from-2023-12-04-13-47-25.png” title_text=”Screenshot from 2023-12-04 13-47-25″ align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”20px||20px||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-from-2023-12-04-13-46-33.png” title_text=”Screenshot from 2023-12-04 13-46-33″ align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”20px||20px||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_blurb title=”Sunday Night Asian Open” use_icon=”on” font_icon=”||fa||400″ icon_color=”#7CDA24″ icon_placement=”left” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_blurb][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-from-2023-12-03-21-27-56.png” title_text=”Screenshot from 2023-12-03 21-27-56″ align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”20px||20px||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-from-2023-12-03-21-26-04.png” title_text=”Screenshot from 2023-12-03 21-26-04″ align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”20px||20px||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”18px” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Source: https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/why-would-markets-believe-any-central-bank-assurances-ever-again<\/em><\/p>\n

The Boy Who Cried Wolf<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jerome Powell set off another sharp fall in US bond yields on Friday by suggesting that \u201cit would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance<\/em>\u201d. Huh? Obviously he intended this to be a hawkish statement, but the market laughed it off and duly bought bonds anyway. Clearly,\u00a0traders don\u2019t trust the Fed Chair to deliver on any further monetary tightening as there is virtually zero probability of further rate hikes priced into Fed Funds futures, and 5 cuts priced in by the end of 2024.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Indeed,\u00a0speculation that the hiking cycle has already concluded gained momentum after Powell said that monetary policy is \u201cwell into restrictive territory\u201d<\/em>.\u00a0<\/strong>This helped the 2-year yield closed up by 14bps, the 10-year up by 13bps and the S&P500 up by 0.59%.<\/p>\n

The price action became even more interesting on the Asian open today.\u00a0Gold prices hit a new all-time-high of $2,135\/ounce and Bitcoin busted through the $40,000 level.\u00a0<\/strong>What does this tell us? If asset classes variously disparaged as an \u201cpet rock<\/em><\/a>\u201d and \u201cdigital magic beans<\/em>\u201d are surging, are we heading back to the \u2018good times\u2019 of the Covid bubble economy?\u00a0Or are higher prices for zero-yield monetary alternatives a signifier of the market\u2019s (lack of) confidence in the US Dollar?<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is some argument for the latter.\u00a0The DXY index has been under substantial pressure as rate cuts get pulled forward along the yield curve and signs of\u00a0deflation<\/em>\u00a0emerge in major economies<\/strong>. The WSJ today\u00a0reports<\/a>\u00a0on the deflationary trend, and points out that it provides a tailwind for central banks in their crusade to achieve their price stability targets, even as services price inflation remains stubbornly high.<\/p>\n

No doubt that\u2019s true, but how do you make sure you have just the right amount of deflation in just the right places? Last week\u2019s announcement of \u201cvoluntary\u201d OPEC+ production cuts of a further 1 million barrels per day have done nothing to staunch the weakness in crude oil prices, even as the unit of account that crude is denominated in (the USD) is falling fast. What does that tell us about the state of economic activity?\u00a0Maybe the deflation is further along than popularly acknowledged.<\/strong><\/p>\n

If the WSJ judges a little bit of goods deflation to be no bad thing, they\u2019re in good company. In 1888 the celebrated Cambridge economist Alfred Marshall (he of the Marshallian Demand) told a Royal Commission that\u00a0\u201cthe evils resulting from a fall in prices are commonly overrated. I think that it is not clearly established that a rise in prices is to be preferred to a fall.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Obviously, the modern view is that a rise in prices IS to be preferred to a fall.\u00a0This is the orthodoxy among central bankers, who have long seen lower consumer prices as an existential threat to the economy<\/strong>. This thinking has become so ingrained since the adoption of inflation targeting in the early 1990s that the \u201crate cuts soon<\/em>\u201d meme that we sometimes poke fun at is really just a reflection of the\u00a0mathy<\/a>\u00a0reaction function of your garden variety inflation-targeting central bank.\u00a0This is the reason why bets on rate cuts are being brought forward, even as central bankers protest their seriousness on \u201chigher for longer<\/em>\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is an element of \u2018The Boy Who Cried Wolf<\/strong><\/em>\u2019 here.\u00a0Why would markets believe central bank assurances of hawkish intentions when they have never delivered hawkish rates policy at any point since Long Term Capital Management blew up in the late 1990s?\u00a0<\/strong>Have they updated their models, or revised their view of how the economy works?<\/p>\n

Of course, the answer is no. After the three years we\u2019ve just had (and the 12 years that preceded it)\u00a0it might make sense to ask the question whether price stability mandates have been a good thing.\u00a0<\/strong>In fact, the recent review of the Reserve Bank of Australia\u00a0did<\/em>\u00a0ask this question, and concluded perfunctorily with a \u201cyes, they have<\/em>\u201d. So, why did we have the review again?<\/p>\n

In reality, few mainstream economists seriously question the usefulness of inflation targeting regimes. Despite\u00a0suggestions<\/a>\u00a0that financial crises becoming more frequent, inflation targeting is treated as infallible, and widely accepted as best practice the world over. This was not always the case. The Fed itself did not have a formal inflation target until Ben Bernanke introduced one 2012, and in 1937 the Australian Monetary and Banking Commission had this to say on the matter:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cPrice fluctuations are little more than symptoms, and the monetary authorities should not seek to regulate credit with regard to a price index.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The implication here is that \u2018price stability\u2019 mandates are not some modern intellectual breakthrough cooked up in New Zealand in the 1990s,\u00a0but an old idea that was repeatedly rejected in the past.\u00a0<\/strong>Why was it rejected? Because, to paraphrase Mervyn King,\u00a0it can result in measuring things that are not important and failing to measure the things that are important.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is an argument to be made that capitalism breeds productive efficiency, which lowers unit costs over time. This implies a natural deflationary bias. If you set policy so that prices will grow at 2% p.a. in the face of this,\u00a0it could be argued that policy rates will always be (structurally) too low, and therefore encourage speculation and the formation of credit bubbles. (Bitcoin is at $40,700 now!)<\/strong><\/p>\n

So,\u00a0is it a coincidence that inflation targeting was adopted in the 1990s, asset price bubbles began in the 1990s, and policy rates have been marching lower ever since the 1990s?\u00a0<\/strong>Rate cuts soon!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_video src=”https:\/\/youtu.be\/9KLZRdT1rlE” _builder_version=”4.23.1″ _module_preset=”default” theme_builder_area=”post_content” hover_enabled=”0″ sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_video][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n<\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at RabobankSource: https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/why-would-markets-believe-any-central-bank-assurances-ever-again The Boy Who Cried Wolf Jerome Powell set off another sharp fall in US bond yields on Friday by suggesting that \u201cit would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance\u201d. Huh? Obviously he intended this to be a hawkish […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":987504552,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_eb_attr":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[11,60,22,55,28,7,63,6,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-987504549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-action-steps","category-editors-choice","category-financial","category-food-storage","category-great-awakening","category-hidden-secrets","category-oh-shit","category-revelations","category-royally-screwed"],"yoast_head":"\nThey Have Turned The PM Markets into Crypto Speculative Markets, Manipulation Out In The Open For Everyone To See. - Danella Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/danellaconsulting.net\/index.php\/2023\/12\/04\/they-have-turned-the-pm-markets-into-crypto-speculative-markets-manipulation-out-in-the-open-for-everyone-to-see\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"They Have Turned The PM Markets into Crypto Speculative Markets, Manipulation Out In The Open For Everyone To See. - Danella Consulting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at RabobankSource: https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/why-would-markets-believe-any-central-bank-assurances-ever-again The Boy Who Cried Wolf Jerome Powell set off another sharp fall in US bond yields on Friday by suggesting that \u201cit would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance\u201d. 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Huh? 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